A much stormier weather pattern will be the trend for the Southern Area for the next 10 days with systems producing moderate, to locally high (1 to 4 plus inches), of rainfall accumulations.
Today, post-cold frontal high pressure, and the drier air it bring,s will continue to build across our states east of the Mississippi River Valley producing broad 20% to sub 35% RH minimums for our southeast states (Mississippi, Alabama, Georgia, and the Carolinas). Winds will be moderately gusty from the northwest in the mountains with speeds to about 25 mph. Tomorrow, lower afternoon humidity coverage and minimums will drop to their lowest range of the weekend period with RHs across our southeast AND eastern states ranging from the upper teens to 20%s.
Sunday evening into Monday, moisture levels will be significantly increasing in advance of the first weather system to bring measurable rain to our most active fire region of the central and southern Appalachian Mountains. On Monday RH minimums here should be in the 50's to wide spread 60's plus with a leading edge of 0.5 to 1 inch plus rainfall reaching east into the windward mountain area by early Tuesday. Additional disturbances with this system will produce additional rain fall Wednesday and Thursday with cold frontal passage by Friday morning. The weather pattern appears to remain progressive and “stormier” through the 12 or 13th.
Total rain accumulations over this “wetter” period into early December will be highest for our central Mississippi state area with 1.5 to 5 inch plus totals with 1 to 3 inch and locally higher amounts for the Appalachian Mountain states. This pattern will be producing a significant fire environment change and a longer period of moderating fire risk.
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